Even if an album isn't ready until early 2022, I am hopeful for a lead single earlier than this fall for two reasons:
1) This is currently the longest break from country radio in Carrie's career, meaning she has never gone this long before without a single promoted to country radio (including album singles and collaborations). I think a break is good after the way radio reacted to Cry Pretty's singles, but I would imagine her label would be eager to get her back on airwaves with a new single.
2) Singles are taking longer than ever in recent memory to climb the charts, unless your name is Luke Combs. The typical 20ish weeks to peak during the Storyteller era can now be 30-40 weeks even for big named stars, and much much longer for newer artists. The CP single came 5 months before the album, and with Carrie's recent shaky standing on country radio, I don't think a lead single 6-7 months before an album is out of question. If you want 4 singles from an album these days, and your first name isn't Luke or Thomas, you need to start early.