Farawayhills
Well-known member
Both main parties have fallen into disarray over leadership in the wake of the referendum (which has had wide ranging political results, which neither side seem to have expected or thought through in advance)
Michael Gove had appeared to be entering an agreement to back Boris Johnson, as his campaign manager - until he unexpectedly announced his own candidature today, resulting in Johnson's support collapsing and him pulling out. Opinion is divided on whether Gove had been planning all along to out-manœuvre Johnson, or whether he reluctantly came to the conclusion that Johnson was not suitable to be leader. I think the latter is more likely. Gove seems to have been unable to get Johnson to agree on whom to include in his team, and seems to have been concerned about Johnson's ability to unify the party and the country.
Johnson attracts public support, but is also seen by others as an eccentric and unpredictable figure, who sometimes attracts ridicule. More seriously, the most dangerous development during and since the referendum has been growing intolerance and anti-foreign feeling in some quarters, and there may have been concerns that Johnson didn't seem able to give firm leadership against this feeling.
I would be surprised if Gove won the leadership - he is a serious and able administrator, but may lack the personal charisma to win wide public support. Some voters may identify him with the traditional Tory establishment, limiting his wider appeal.
There are five candidates, but the front-runner would seem to be Theresa May. She is the longest serving Home Secretary for 100 years, and is putting herself forward as the most unifying and qualified potential PM. She backed the "Remain" campaign, but actually avoided much personal activity during the campaign, and was not associated with the "scare" tactics that some voters resented. This enables her to act potentially as a "bridging" figure, able to negotiate on the concerns of both sides.
Dr Fox is a Right-wing Conservative, who has stood for the leadership before. I have doubts about whether he could appeal to enough of the party to be seen as a unifying figure. Steven Crabb is a young Welsh MP, who has only been in cabinet for two years. He seems an impressive speaker, and may appeal to the younger generation (70% of whom backed "remain") - but his lack of experience may limit his wider party support. Andrea Leadsom is relatively little known - but she was impressive in the "leave" debates, and could be a "dark horse" for those who feel strongly that a "leave" supporter should lead the negotiations.
