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Weekly Album Sales, Blown Away, week 19

Pi314CA

Active member
From HITS:

Matchbox Twenty’s First New Studio Album in a Decade to Debut at #1

September 5, 2012

September winds are starting to blow.

Look for Atlantic’s Matchbox Twenty to get the back-to-school season off to a flying start, when their new album, North, debuts at #1 with 110-120k in sales next Tuesday.

It’s Rob Thomas and company’s first all-new studio album since 2002’s More Than You Think You Are, which debuted in November of that year with 178k on the way to 2.43 million in sales. The band’s last release, 2007’s Exile on Mainstream, was a double-album set which included a single disc of greatest hits.

New Interscope band, Las Vegas alternative rockers Imagine Dragons’ major label bow, Night Visions, after four EPs, should debut nicely with 55-60k in sales. The group’s music clip for “It’s Time” is up for an MTV Video Music Award in the Best Rock Video category.

Reach Atlanta-based Christian rapper Lecrae’s Gravity is in the 55-60k range, but that’s based on very limited info, with plenty of religious bookstore sales yet to be counted as the week continues.

Kitsune/Glassnote Irish rockers Two Door Cinema Club’s sophomore album Beacon looks to be in the 15-20k range.
Next week’s (9/11) release slate includes RCA’s Dave Matthews Band and Columbia’s Bob Dylan along with American/Republic’s Avett Brothers and veteran Seven Arts rapper DMX.
 

Pi314CA

Active member
Blown Away, the album, could have sales this week in the 50k range. If I underestimated, then BA could sell more than Night Visions and/or Gravity. We'll see.

Here is my rationale:

1. Physical CDs from store sales will maintain a steady sales level of 10k-12k.
2. iTunes sales to be 30k. The one day, 9/2, sales number was about 14k (28k minus 14k (the HITS estimate)). Estimating the top iTunes album to have about 10k-12k in digital sales the first several days, I am guessing BA sold 9k, 7k, 6k on 9/3, 9/4, 9/5. If BA sells 3k per day for 9/6-9/8, then 30k is definitely possible.
3. Amazon is now selling BA at $6.99. Just maybe the pent up mp3 demand will result in 5k in day 1 (today) and another 5k combined on 9/7 and 9/8. That’s 10k from Amazon.

Look forward to HITS and Billboard’s projections for BA later this week.

Update: I didn't account for sales on the last day of the sales week, 9/9, so the number could be even higher. :)
 
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Manchs

New member
Awesome! Thanks a lot, Pi.

By the way, Carrie's fb account just posted that today is the last day to buy BA on iTunes for $6,99. Another day with bigger sales then!
 

Pi314CA

Active member
Awesome! Thanks a lot, Pi.

By the way, Carrie's fb account just posted that today is the last day to buy BA on iTunes for $6,99. Another day with bigger sales then!

You're welcome, Manchs. Looks like people are taking advantage of this extra sales day. BA has moved up to #4 all-genre on iTunes albums chart.
 

PRGuy79

Well-known member
that's dumb, why noy keep it up for the whoel week

I'm guessing they wanted to create a sense of "urgency" to push people to buy "now". As humans, we're chronic procrastinators. If we think we have all week, we'll take our sweet time. :)
 

Pi314CA

Active member
^^^I guess more people are rushing to buy BA. It's now #3 on iTunes ahead of Matchbox Twenty's North! :)
 

carrieidol1

Well-known member
I'm confused, I thought the sale was reflected in the 28,000 from last week's numbers? Can someone spell this out for me please. I'd love to see Carrie sell in the 50k range this week, but I just don't get how that's going to happen.
 

Ty

Active member
^ Last week's numbers only included 1 full day of the iTunes sale, right?
 

Daraebe

Active member
Last weeks numbers only included Sunday sale numbers. This week will include the other 4 days of iTunes sale plus Amazon
 

carrieidol1

Well-known member
Gotcha, thanks for the clarification. In that case, 50k would be an astounding number at this point in the album's career. It could serve to boost its weekly sales, too, through the holiday season.
 

Manchs

New member
I'm confused, I thought the sale was reflected in the 28,000 from last week's numbers? Can someone spell this out for me please. I'd love to see Carrie sell in the 50k range this week, but I just don't get how that's going to happen.

Carrie had a 85% increase in sales due to a discount. In the past tracking week, Blown Away was on sale for just a day on iTunes for $6.99 and outsold initial predictions of 12k-15k by ~15k, again, with just one day on sale, selling 28k copies. This week, Blown Away has a 4 days discount on iTunes and it was just discounted on Amazon, which is selling BA for the same price. Doing the math, selling in the 50k range seems more than likely. :)
 

Marie2011

New member
man i hope that BA doesn't have that huge of a drop 2 weeks from now; how long does the amazon sell last?
 

Daraebe

Active member
Sales run Monday-Sunday which is why you see artists starting to release their cd's on mondays to get the extra day of sales
 

Daraebe

Active member
YOUR “WE’VE GOT OURS, YOU’RE ON YOUR OWN” WEAKEND CHART PREVIEW: Matchbox Twenty should debut at #1 next week with a total just into six digits—and that’ll easily be enough to give it the top spot next Tuesday. Fighting it out for #2 will be the full-length debut from rockers Imagine Dragons (an EP has been out since May) and the latest from Christian hip-hop artist Lecrae (we didn't either). Here's how the not so pretty picture headed into the weekend:

* Matchbox Twenty (Atlantic) 100-110k
* Lecrae (Reach) 65-70k
* Imagine Dragons (Interscope) 65-70k
Now 43 (Capitol/EMI) 35-40k
Maroon 5 (A&M/Octone) 25-28k
Fun. (Fueled by Ramen) 24-27k
Carrie Underwood (19/Arista Nashville) 24-27k
Trey Songz (Atlantic) 24-27k
2 Chainz (Def Jam/IDJ) 24-27k
TobyMac (Forefront) 24-27k
Adele (XL/Columbia) 22-25k
Lumineers (Dualtone) 19-22k
Justin Bieber (Island/IDJ) 18-21k
One Direction (Syco/Columbia) 17-20k
* Two Door Cinema Club(Glassnote) 17-20k

* Debuts (9/6p


I would not at all be surprised if they are underestimating Carrie's sales
 
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