I’d like this to make top twenty, but it’s going to be close.
At the end of the day, I don’t blame OOTT not going to #1 on the song itself. It’s a great song and very radio friendly.
But it has everything to do with momentum. Radio judges what they’re going to play based on how well a previous single did. “Ghost Story” went to #5, and accordingly, HMH had a really fast start. HMH had momentum. Unfortunately, OOTT followed a song that peaked at #20, leaving it with no momentum.
To make matters worse, radio only likes to play 2-3 women at a time. They have six women in the 15-25 range right now. So, they’re just dividing the spins they allocate to women among all the songs, which is why all of the women (except Lainey) are struggling. However, speaking to the quality of OOTT, it can be argued radio liked it more than other songs by women, such as Carly and Gabby, whose current singles have a lot of momentum, and got clear channel deals giving them a high debut/fast start. Despite that, OOTT is only a few spots behind them/a few weeks older, with no radio deal or momentum. It’s possible by the time radio decided to play it (after giving it a slow start due to no momentum) they thought it was too old to have it go far.
It also has nothing to do with Carrie being a legacy act who radio won’t play. Plenty of men in country music who are older than Carrie, continue to get played in their forties and fifties. And if it was that she was a legacy act, it wouldn’t explain why many of the new generation of women are having songs peak at #20, or lower, such as Kelsea, Ashley, Gabby, Hailey, etc.
I do fully believe Carrie’s next single, her lead single, can do well. It’ll get a radio deal which will give it a fast and high start, and if it’s good and really connects with people, that radio deal will really help. Plus, plenty of other artists in country music have had multiple songs in a row peak low on the chart, and then had songs after that do well, such as Kenny and Tim.