She's had multiple hits, including a #1 female-female duet, there was an entire extra EP worth of songs added to the original. She has been a face of country recently, she absolutely has earned a win in this category. Who cares if she toured smaller venues, she's not vying for Entertainer. I'd rather someone with a real case win an award than just a lazy name check that the voters usually do. There would be literally nothing bad about this win.
There really needs to stop being a comparison with Carrie for every female artist at every turn here. It really dilutes truly talented people, because they don't stand up to an actual legend (Carrie). It's just unrealistic.
Take a year like 1992 at the CMA's Mary Chapin Carpenter won Female Vocalist. She was nominated against Reba, Tanya Tucker, Wynonna and Trisha Yearwood. All four are inarguably bigger more iconic artists and better vocalists, but Mary Chapin Carpenter won. But she had huge hits and presence, so I'd say she definitely had a reason to win. Like damn, sometimes someone else is deserving.