I think 200-250k copies for Carrie is the safer bet for now. Norah Jones' last album didn't hit #1, and it was released a few years ago when albums sales are better, and right before the holiday season, by the way. I absolutely love her and actually was one of the few buyers of her last album, but very obviously her original Pop-Jazz sound has already worn off for the general public as shown by her sharp decline in sales, and that she's unlikely to get a real hit outside of Smooth Jazz and Triple A anyways, considering her voice and the music she sings. She's also never a very visual artist either so a video should not help her much in the short term. Not to mention, starting from "Not Too Late" she has gone too Pop for a lot of Jazz listeners, i.e. her core fanbase, and "The Fall" pushed even further to that direction, which alienated even more core fans of hers. Hell, she might not even debut ahead of ADELE by then!