I think - think, not 100 percent - that DA would do considerably well at country radio, like peak at #8 or #7. However I don't think it would be a No. 1 smash. I honestly think there will be no number one hits from this album, not even Southbound. Might as well hang it up if you are wanting No. 1 hits. That is no longer important to her career anyway.
It depends on what UMG wants out of the album. Do they want to squeeze as much commercial success and sales figures out of it? Then the choice would be DA, which probably appeals to the younger country audience who is requesting these "hookup" or breakup relationship songs. DA fits in the "drunk hookup" category, which a lot of young people are into those kinds of songs, but I personally hate them, and I don't see how DA as a single would do any favors for Carrie as an artist. It's not who she is at all. It's also not a whole lotta fun after the 5th listen.
Truthfully, I think Carrie is getting about a 90% say in what singles are being chosen from this era, and I think UMG, for whatever reason, is currently focusing on their other talent instead of really watching or caring about how this album is doing. So, I still think - fortunately - the last single choice will come down to Carrie. And, being who she is, I don't think at this point she will try to squeeze a number one hit out of the album just for the sake of trying to get a No. 1, which let's be real, is no longer guaranteed with any song that she will ever put out, this year or any year from now. It's just the reality of country radio today.
Sooo, with all that said, I think the top 3 choices for what Carrie may have planned are GOTS, Low, and The Bullet. All three for different reasons. GOTS, in my opinion, would actually be a really good pick, because it's still a "relationship" type song but the lyrics are really well-written, the vibe is very chill and only slightly sad, but also the female character is very strong. Kind of like in "Wasted" or "Dirty laundry" - she's okay with the breakup. I think GOTS would resonate with a very specific audience. Not a No. 1 hit, but I think it could peak in the top 12 with a cool video to boot.
"Low" is ear candy for all kinds of reasons, not the least of which because it pays homage to the old country sound - "Lo whoa whoa whomsome for youuuu" and Carrie blows it out of the water. However, I don't think it is really a "radio" song and I would be surprised if they released it. It's a big, big, big ballad, it's kinda slow, and kinda sad. But, we're moving into the fall weather, anything is possible. Plus, to do it big on the CMA stage like that - would be very cool to see. But we've already had "Cry Pretty", and the only proper music video for this is to show Carrie crying in a bath tub, and they've already done that with Cry Pretty (albeit it was in a shower), but still. I think because of the similarities to CP, it won't make the cut. (Agree with Faraway).
So, the only logical remaining choice is The Bullet. It's political, but it's spot on for what's going on in America right now. Gun violence is fresh on everyone's minds right now. It's got a moving message. It's very country. It's very, very Carrie Underwood in that it has a message, but it doesn't push politics one way or the other, it just states the message. Like TH or SITW. The music video basically writes itself. I say go for it.
Edit: uuum, also just found out that one of the guys who wrote TB - Shamblin - also wrote Bonnie Raitt's "I Can't Make You Love Me" - WHICH Carrie auditioned with on American Idol. Okay, that seals the deal. The Bullet is next lol.